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Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Sunday, May 19, 2013
MID-MAY WILL TURN ACTIVE, WITH WET CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION
This weekend's forecast was way too optimistic from just about all sources. And that's putting it lightly.
The next ten days starting today will be characterized by a lot of bouts with wet weather, including thunderstorms. The exception will be days where it's completely dry; we're likely to see a brief respite Wednesday and much of the weekend, but every other day is dicey.
The prospects for storms will oscillate as we head through the course of the work week. this is due to the fact that a front will be bouncing around our neck of the woods for days. So while at first, the front ushers in progressively very muggy conditions by Monday-Wednesday, it turns cool for the balance of Wednesday, before getting muggy again by Thursday!
Humid air masses and nearby fronts will lead to frequent spells of primarily afternoon and early evening rainfalls this week, which should easily average several inches for most locations.
Severe thunderstorms may occur thursday. The ingredients are there for unusually intense storms (more to follow later).
DAILY HIGHLIGHTS:
TODAY; Periods of showers, ending after midnight.
MONDAY: Some clearing, but slow-moving thunderstorms will threaten the region in the late afternoon. Heavy downpours a good bet with any one storm. Storms clear the region by late evening, but fog will develop late.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Best chance for storms will be north and west of NYC in the afternoon, with lesser chances towards the city and coast.
THURSDAY: Best chance for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move from west to east in the evening.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: Looking dry, but temps will be held to near 70, with 60s at the shoreline.
Overall, a low confidence scenario for the upcoming week, so updates will be needed.
Give credit to Mt Holly Weather Service and Climate Predictions Center for being the most out-front on this week's pattern .
The next ten days starting today will be characterized by a lot of bouts with wet weather, including thunderstorms. The exception will be days where it's completely dry; we're likely to see a brief respite Wednesday and much of the weekend, but every other day is dicey.
The prospects for storms will oscillate as we head through the course of the work week. this is due to the fact that a front will be bouncing around our neck of the woods for days. So while at first, the front ushers in progressively very muggy conditions by Monday-Wednesday, it turns cool for the balance of Wednesday, before getting muggy again by Thursday!
Humid air masses and nearby fronts will lead to frequent spells of primarily afternoon and early evening rainfalls this week, which should easily average several inches for most locations.
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| WPC 5-day rainfall totals |
Severe thunderstorms may occur thursday. The ingredients are there for unusually intense storms (more to follow later).
DAILY HIGHLIGHTS:
TODAY; Periods of showers, ending after midnight.
MONDAY: Some clearing, but slow-moving thunderstorms will threaten the region in the late afternoon. Heavy downpours a good bet with any one storm. Storms clear the region by late evening, but fog will develop late.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Best chance for storms will be north and west of NYC in the afternoon, with lesser chances towards the city and coast.
THURSDAY: Best chance for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move from west to east in the evening.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: Looking dry, but temps will be held to near 70, with 60s at the shoreline.
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| Intellicast |
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| Intellicast |
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| Intellicast |
Overall, a low confidence scenario for the upcoming week, so updates will be needed.
Give credit to Mt Holly Weather Service and Climate Predictions Center for being the most out-front on this week's pattern .
Monday, May 13, 2013
WARMER MID WEEK AND BEYOND...
The chilly May weather to open the week is here, with frost and freeze warnings all over the northeast for a second consecutive night.
Light blue shows "freeze warnings," while darker blue denotes frost "advisories."
Most areas near the coast (except for southern Jersey) will only experience a patchy frost, but even there, tender vegetation should be carefully watched.
slow-moving clouds will put a lid on frost/freeze chances tomorrow night.
Chances for showers and storms increase for Wednesday and Wednesday night, but lessen a bit each day starting on Thursday into the weekend, as high pressure and warm conditions take control over the weather picture. Beyond Wednesday, more organized precip will most likely wait until Sunday night or Monday morning.
In spite of some chances for showers and storms mid-week, the overall pattern is not conducive to much in the way of appreciable rainfall through this weekend. However, there are pretty decent signals which point towards a much wetter overall pattern by next week, especially early to middle stages of the work week.
Light blue shows "freeze warnings," while darker blue denotes frost "advisories."
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| Weather Nation |
Most areas near the coast (except for southern Jersey) will only experience a patchy frost, but even there, tender vegetation should be carefully watched.
slow-moving clouds will put a lid on frost/freeze chances tomorrow night.
Chances for showers and storms increase for Wednesday and Wednesday night, but lessen a bit each day starting on Thursday into the weekend, as high pressure and warm conditions take control over the weather picture. Beyond Wednesday, more organized precip will most likely wait until Sunday night or Monday morning.
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| Intellicast |
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| Intellicast |
In spite of some chances for showers and storms mid-week, the overall pattern is not conducive to much in the way of appreciable rainfall through this weekend. However, there are pretty decent signals which point towards a much wetter overall pattern by next week, especially early to middle stages of the work week.
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
UNSETTLED SATURDAY, WITH A FROSTY START NEXT WEEK
1. Morning showers thursday should not be as heavy as today's flooding downpours, which were not well-advertised in advance. Decreasing chances for rain as the day progresses, but leftover cloud cover can persist at night tomorrow night. 60s widespread.
2. A break for Friday, but then a risk of a shower and storm will threaten us Friday night, especially NYC and points to the north and west. Warm temps Friday, with highs in the 70s (a shot at 80 for the urban locales).
3. Showers and storms will be widespread Saturday for all areas. Although it won't rain the entire time Saturday and Saturday night, the risk of one at any point will exist before a slow-moving front crosses our region early Sunday. Rainfall this week will alleviate the very dry spring conditions thus far. Sunday is the better weekend day, with generally fair skies and temps near 70.
4. Potential for patchy frost Monday night and again Tuesday night, as very cold mid-May air mass settles in. Chilly temps for this time of year Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the lower 60s. 30s at night for at least one of these nights, but the core of the coldest air should stay to our north. Bares close watch for gardeners.
2. A break for Friday, but then a risk of a shower and storm will threaten us Friday night, especially NYC and points to the north and west. Warm temps Friday, with highs in the 70s (a shot at 80 for the urban locales).
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| SPC has a slight risk for severe t'storms Friday very close to NYC |
3. Showers and storms will be widespread Saturday for all areas. Although it won't rain the entire time Saturday and Saturday night, the risk of one at any point will exist before a slow-moving front crosses our region early Sunday. Rainfall this week will alleviate the very dry spring conditions thus far. Sunday is the better weekend day, with generally fair skies and temps near 70.
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| Intellicast.com |
4. Potential for patchy frost Monday night and again Tuesday night, as very cold mid-May air mass settles in. Chilly temps for this time of year Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the lower 60s. 30s at night for at least one of these nights, but the core of the coldest air should stay to our north. Bares close watch for gardeners.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Sunday, April 28, 2013
MAY SHOULD START MOSTLY MERRY
1. Weakening storm will brush the western parts of the area (including NYC) Monday into Tuesday, with pesky light rain. Temps will stay near 60, but the area will be cloudy until Tuesday afternoon/night. Clouds will clear in unusual fashion Tuesday -- from east to west -- as a blocking pattern establishes itself.
2. Said pattern will lead to light easterly flow off of the relatively cool ocean. This will keep temps in the lower 60s through the week. The further east you head, the more likely it is that temps will be even a tad lower.
3. Thursday/Friday: Our warmest days, but then a slow-moving storm approaches for late in the weekend, which could knock our temps down and offer increasing rain chances.
4. Periods of extended warmth are unlikely going further into May. Pattern is bottled up. Blocking high over the Northeast as opposed to our south will promote a strong Maritime influence on our temps. Slow-moving storms as well as the position of the blocking high will keep temps from running too far ahead of schedule.
2. Said pattern will lead to light easterly flow off of the relatively cool ocean. This will keep temps in the lower 60s through the week. The further east you head, the more likely it is that temps will be even a tad lower.
3. Thursday/Friday: Our warmest days, but then a slow-moving storm approaches for late in the weekend, which could knock our temps down and offer increasing rain chances.
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| Intellicast |
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| Accuweather.com |
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