JANUARY STORM THREATS LOOM

 

CHRISTMAS TO NEW YEARS OUTLOOK

 

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY

 

A strong coastal storm is taking shape; this one looks to be a classic coastal system rather than the frontal passage we just saw and it should bring rain, wind and coastal flooding concerns to the NYC area late Sunday into Monday.

Storms like these were few and far between last year; recall that, after the ferocious Christmas cold outbreak last December, winter was largely absent in the east with no notable nor'easters coupled with a very mild pattern. But now, with El Niño in play, storms will develop in the south and either slide out to sea or re-curve up the Eastern Seaboard. Expect this to be the theme of the winter season. Cold air will be lurking, especially after we get past Christmas this coming year as the pattern re-sets. Although the storm will be a rainmaker, it's the pattern that's really important; instead of storms lashing the West Coast and going north into Canada, we have a whole new set up this year.

STORMY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY

 

A major storm will sweep through the region Sunday afternoon into early Monday with strong winds and heavy, soaking rains. Rainfall of 2-3 inches is likely a rather short amount of time (light rain staring early afternoon, then becoming heavy towards evening). 

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

 

NOVEMBER ENDS ON A COLD NOTE

 

THANKSGIVING COLD BREW

 

I also take a look at NOAA's winter outlook for precipitation.  Models are showing a sharp turn to cold around Turkey Day with two fast-moving fronts beforehand (one on Friday, the other next Tuesday). Until then, it's nice and quiet with temps gradually coming up each day through Friday. 

EARLY NOVEMBER OUTLOOK

 

LATE-OCTOBER WARM "SPELL"

 

MURKY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 

COLUMBUS DAY FALL FLIP

Video can be found here

TWO STORMS THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS

 

MINOR IMPACTS FROM LEE THIS WEEKEND

 

HEAT RELENTS LATE WEEK

 

The summer's first heat wave gives way to a more humid, unsettled pattern this weekend into next week. Hurricane Lee is not a threat to the U.S. mainland through next Wednesday but we should keep a close watch on it late next week for any direct/indirect impacts to our area. 

PROLONGED DRY/WARM SPELL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS

 

SUMMER HEAT IN FULL RETREAT

 

We have had the benefits of a pattern that would not allow heat to hold in our part of the country for the balance of the summer. Aside from a day or two, 90-degree days have been scattered. After today, the same pattern (or similar one) will take shape and keep excessive heat from the Mid-West from having a free hand into the Northeast states. Tropics are very active, but the overall pattern is not yet ominous for sending tropical systems our way through the next seven days. 

EARLY WEEK STORM/FLOOD RISKS

 

LATE WEEK EXCESSIVE HEAT

 

Much like the past few weeks, heat will come in and only remain for 2-3 days. 

Nevertheless, the hottest day of the summer season thus far for most of the region is on tap for Friday. 

SMOKE AND HUMIDITY PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK

 After yesterday's flooding, the region will start to dry out a bit this week; although we'll see chances for storms Tuesday and again Thursday/early Friday, much of the region will see less in the way of rain. Frontal systems will have a better push forward, moving through more briskly and giving the area more time to recover from any downpours. 

WPC Day 1-5 Total Precipitation: Less at the coast, more inland

Meanwhile, smoke from prolonged wildfires in Canada will infiltrate the Northeast states. There will be times this week where the air quality is unhealthy, particularly during the middle of the day. This combined with temps generally around 90 and high humidity will make it a challenging week for people more sensitive to poor air quality. 

Air Quality Index

After the second front goes by on Thursday, we'll get a brief break from high humidity for Friday and again Saturday. Weather systems will keep moving along, so rain chances will be low for this coming weekend. By the beginning of next week, dew points should rise to uncomfortable levels yet again; temperatures overall should average out to near normal for this time of year. 

Tropical Tidbits

Precipitation should continue to run above normal as the overall pattern from June persists with the jet stream remaining very active for this time of year (this should signal that every few days, chances for downpours should continue with high humidity values). 

RENEWED FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEKEND

After a brief break from the flood threat, the area will once again be dealing with chances for excessive rain through the weekend. The same theme applies that we've seen over the last several weeks; rainfall will be highest north and west of NYC but it could be prolific and lead to problems in areas that have seen disastrous results of late. 

Rainfall since Sunday

The stage has been set due to the rains from last weekend with already saturated ground. Humidity levels will start to once again rise to annoying levels from Thursday through the weekend. 

Along with temps near or slightly above 90, relief will be felt mainly at the south-facing shoreline. The time to watch for the most rain would be Friday and again Sunday, with Thursday and Saturday having less overall coverage of showers and storms. 

Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Forecast For Friday

 Any one storm on Friday and Sunday could produce locally very high totals just like we saw this past Sunday. The overall environment will be loaded with moisture and nearby fronts will serve as the trigger for storms to fire, especially Friday and Sunday. There will be places that see local flash floods of roads, side streets and even transit. 

Be sure to act quickly if warnings are issued for your area. 

Don't drive through water-covered roads.

FLOODING RAINS LIKLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR NYC AND POINTS WEST

 

A band of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms will slowly move through the area Sunday afternoon and night. Above is where the heaviest rains should fall; there will be pockets where over 4 inches fall. Areas east of NYC will see lighter amounts of 1-2 inches. Flood watches are posted for NYC and points west for tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. The graphic above is from NWS; there could be places in the red areas where widespread road flooding may become a problem. 

Don't drive through water-covered roads!

JULY HEAT KEPT AT BAY THROUGH MID-MONTH

 

EARLY WEEK SEVERE WEATHER THREATS

 

WAVES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY

 

Unsettled weather to start the "official" start of summer. 

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

 

I'm noticing a downward trend in the overall chances for appreciable rain this week, but temps look fabulous for June (about right where we should be for this time of year). 

WARMING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND

 

PLEASANT START TO JUNE

 

SPRING WEATHER REGAINS CONTROL THROUGH EARLY MAY

 

UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OPEN MAY

 

SPRING PATTERN GETS IN GEAR TO CLOSE MARCH

 

INLAND SNOW, COASTAL MIX FOR TUESDAY

 

MAJOR STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK

 

INLAND SNOW, COASTAL MIX MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY

 

MAINLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY

 

Aside from a brief cold shot late Friday through most of Saturday, the weather pattern that has dominated our region with wintry warmth and some rain at times will continue unabated through the early days of March. 

RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE LATE WEEK

 

FEBRUARY FLEETING COLD SHOT

 

MID-WEEK STORM MAINLY RAIN

 

NYC SNOWLESS WINTER CONTINUES

 

COOLER, BUT MAINLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK