FRIDAY DOWNPOURS

Any rainfall over the last week has been spotty around the region and has done little to alleviate the dry conditions we’ve experienced over the last 30 days.

NOAA: rainfall last 30 days

In the short term, it’ll remain warm and humid through Thursday for the entire area. Clouds will be more prevalent on Thursday, which will mitigate the influence of daytime heating.  Any showers or thunderstorms will be heavily confined to west of the Hudson River, with more isolated chances the further east you head, including Long Island.

By dawn Friday morning, a slow moving front will trigger heavy showers area-wide. These showers will slowly move east.  With a highly moistened atmosphere in place, any shower can produce very heavy rain in a short amount of time; this could cause urban and highway flooding to transpire very quickly during the morning rush hour. Chances for showers should begin to wane by mid-to-late afternoon as the front slowly creeps through the region. 

Intellicast: weather map for 8am Friday

Conditions will improve by Saturday and Saturday night. Any showers or thunderstorms during this time frame will be widely scattered.

Weather Underground: Smartphone

The next front will arrive on Tuesday morning with less humid air. Until then, the air mass will remain tropical, while temps will be very close to normal for this time of year. 

MID-TO-LATE AUGUST WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE

1. Overall increasingly warm, humid pattern through Tuesday.  Highest humidity values will be felt on Saturday, Monday and Tuesday, with lower humidity values for Sunday and Wednesday.

2. Precipitation should be minimal through the next seven days. We'll have a chance at an isolated thunderstorm on Saturday afternoon, then a more widespread area of thunderstorms should push through Tuesday afternoon and night. Total precipitation for most areas through next Wednesday should average less than 1 inch. 

7online.com/weather

WPC total price through next Wednesday evening

3. Signs in the long term point towards continued above normal temps through the end of the month. 

CPC Temp probabilities through Aug 27

VIDEO: TUESDAY'S BENEFICIAL RAIN

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SOAKING RAINS ON FRIDAY WILL BYPASS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH

The overall weather picture for the next few days will be lower temps, some development of fog and low cloud cover at night, and less humidity during the day. A storm system which threatened to dampen Friday with copious rains will instead miss the region, with the exception of southern New Jersey, where some light rain amounts will fall.

GFS Forecast 8/3 vs 8/5

The next shot of any significant rainfall appears delayed until at least Monday afternoon and night. 

Doppler Radar Animation of August 4, 2015 Damaging Wind Event

Local Storm Reports from Tuesday Morning's Storms

 

VIDEO: FRIDAY COULD BE ANOTHER SUMMER SOAKER

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ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

1. Very warm weather will prevail for the first weekend of August.  After today's low humidity values, winds turn southerly on Saturday, ushering in higher dew points. Sunday is less humid, but still very warm with temps near 90 in NYC, and in the upper 80s elsewhere.

2.  Little in the way of precipitation through Tuesday. Any storms will be widely scattered (perhaps Monday night). Overall, the period from Saturday through Tuesday will be characterized by very warm temps, with varying amounts of humidity.

WPC: Forecasted price from Saturday through Wednesday morning

3.  Frontal boundary will sit near the region by Wednesday. Temps will be lower this time frame, with increasing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday. 

VIDEO: MID-WEEK HEAT NEXT WEEK

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