WEEKEND WILL START MURKY WITH A FRESH FINISH...

Clouds during the first part of Thursday kept a lid on any thunderstorms from forming.  This was a forecast error.

After temps climbed into the 80s today, a fresh, fall-like air mass will settle in over the region, with two shots at rainfall through Thursday.

Accuweather.com

For star-gazing purposes on Friday night, clouds should once again take hold of the area late at night.  A period of moderate rain should develop for Saturday afternoon into the first part of Saturday night before ending. Rainfall in any one location should be about 4-6 hours in duration before it tapers off.

Intellicast.com

For Tuesday, showers should spread in early in the morning and continue off and on through much of the day before ending at night.

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...

1. A good start on Monday, but then the sun gets filtered by cloud cover towards late day. A somewhat brisk easterly flow sets up Monday and Tuesday from off of the cool Atlantic Ocean, which will aid in the development of low clouds and drizzle Monday night.  Persistent easterly winds combined with the high tides will act in concert to produce minor coastal flooding early this week.

2. Clouds and breezy conditions will prevail Tuesday into Tuesday night as a weak coastal storm tries to advance in from the south. Stubborn high pressure anchored over New England will keep the low at bay, so only expect very light rain for Tuesday, with areas nearest to the coast getting up to about a quarter of an inch of rain before we dry out Wednesday.

www.weather.gov/okx

WPC 5-day precip totals

3. By Thursday (our warmest day of the week), a strong cold front crosses the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms a good bet in the afternoon. Turning much cooler for the weekend, as a fresh Autumnal air mass settles in.

Intellicast.com

VIDEO: SATURDAY STORMS, THEN SEPTEMBER AIR ROLLS IN

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LATE SUMMER TEMP SURGE BEGINS WITH STORMS....

Overall,  the next 72 hours will feature very warm temps for this time of year, with uncomfortable humidity values.

NYC dew point history from 4pm 8/28 to 8am 8/31. 

The very high humidity values combined with small disturbances rolling through our region will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Any shower or storm that does move over the region will produce very heavy rain. By late afternoon, storms should be ongoing north and west of NYC, then they will spread south and east through the remainder of the evening and overnight before ending late tonight.

For tomorrow, more showers and thunderstorms will develop for the afternoon and evening, but they will be a little less widespread than today's storms.

Accuweather.com

Afternoon and evening storms will try to develop once again for Tuesday, but then the winds turn more northerly on Wednesday, which will lower the humidity values and our rain chances through at least Saturday morning.

Intellicast.com

Weatherspark.com. Average September highs and lows for select dates in NYC

VIDEO: A WARM SEPTEMBER IN THE MAKING

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PRE-LABOR DAY WARM-UP

1. Winds which have been from out of east these last few days switch gears and start to turn southerly. This wind shift will set the stage for warm, humid weather for both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Best shot at the elusive 90 degree mark will be Wednesday for NYC north and west, with mid-and-upper 80s elsewhere.

Intellicast.com

2. Scattered strong storms Wednesday night area-wide will help usher in cooler weather for late week. Temps return to near normal levels through Labor Day weekend.

3. Some opportunity for rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms does exist for the weekend, with the best chance at anything significant coming Saturday night into Sunday. Timing on any rain over the weekend is suspect as models disagree on the actual details. Update will be needed.

4. Cristobal will only deliver rough surf to the area beaches Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

SEPTEMBER-LIKE BLOCKING MEANS HEAT CAN'T COME KNOCKING...

The overall pattern the next 7-10 days will be characterized by times of clouds during the day,  little in the way of rainfall, and a cool, easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean. All of the factors that will dominate our weather are largely in response to a blocking pattern which will remain stagnant over the next week, and possibly beyond.

Intellicast.com Temps

Intellicast.com cloud coverage

Chances for rain have been dwindling in the various forecasts this week. The only real shot at any appreciable rainfall looks to arrive no sooner than Thursday during the day. However, not all areas will receive rain; expect showers, but in the scattered variety on Thursday before we return to dry conditions for the weekend.