WARMER THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND

1. Warm front crawls through for the end of the week. Its progression from south to north ever so slowly will mean cloudy skies and fluctuating rain chances for the end of the week.

 

2. First chance at any showers will be Wednesday afternoon and night, but areas from NYC south and west will see the highest likelihood of rainfall. Areas east and north will see little to no rain for Wednesday through early Thursday (in spite of this, clouds build in all areas Wednesday night into Thursday).

Intellicast.com Cloud Coverage

 

3. Showers for all areas Thursday morning  will give way to mainly overcast with no rain in the afternoon and at night. Chances for showers will remain widely scattered through Saturday night. Most of the time from Thursday night through Saturday afternoon should be dry with plenty of clouds. Warmer temps and a bit humid for Friday and Saturday.

NOAA: Highs Saturday

Intellicast.com Temps

 

4. Saturday night, a cold front sweeps through with our best shot at widespread showers and thunderstorms. Temps behind the front don’t drop off much. Sunday is mainly dry, with lower 70s most spots.

5. Warm week overall next week, but signs in the long term are hinting at a significant mid-month cool shot. 

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THIS WEEK'S SPRING SETBACK WILL ALSO DELIVER HEAVY RAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

Our cool period of weather talked about last week has arrived; a slow-moving, far-reaching storm system which is responsible for the abrupt change in temps, will be slow to clear the area through the end of the week. In fact, its influence will still exert itself with residual, albeit lesser effects through the weekend.

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Most spots from NYC east and south won't see much of any rain through today and tonight. However, by late tonight into Wednesday, light to moderate rain will work into the entire region and become steady by Wednesday afternoon.

Our rain for Wednesday during the morning and through most of the day is only the beginning; by the time we approach the early evening Wednesday, most sections will have seen around an inch of rain, with the heaviest rains actually building in by Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

NOAA Rainfall Forecast through Thursday shows Widespread 2"+ rainfall

By Thursday, rain tapers off. Any rain Thursday through Saturday will be mainly in the afternoon in the form of passing showers. Temps will actually warm rather quickly on Thursday as a warm front switches the winds to a southerly, mild direction.

Intellicast.com

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AS WE EMBARK ON MAY, ANOTHER SERIOUS SPRING SETBACK LOOMS

After a mostly dry, pleasant weekend, a prolonged stretch of unsettled, ugly weather will encompass a vast portion of the eastern U.S beginning Wednesday of next week. The combination of a blocking pattern (which will not allow a storm to quickly move out) and leftover cold from Canada will produce this stagnant regime over a wide area, stretching hundreds of miles around!

 

As noted in the video earlier this week,  prospects are very bleak for warm weather to take hold for the last days of April and the opening of May around these parts. In fact, it’ll be quite the opposite; temps may once again dip obnoxiously low for the time of year. For example, our normal high for May 1^stshould be right around 65, but indications are very strong that readings will struggle to get out of the low 50s for at least one or two days for late next week.

 

Rain will also be a player. Significant amounts are likely during this stretch, with periods of heavy rain developing at times.

 

The blocking pattern will be slow to break down though next weekend. Significant chill will linger, but rain will be come in waves

HIGHLIGHTS;

FRIDAY NIGHT: Next chance of rain, ending early Saturday morning all areas.  A renewed chance of rain/scattered showers develops again Saturday afternoon, particularly from NYC and points west. Warmer away from the coast as is typical of this time of year. 

Accuweather.com

SUNDAY: Cooler, with rain/showers in the afternoon confined to eastern areas (from NYC points east). 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Dry and fair. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Blocking pattern commences. Rain/clouds build in and will be slow to relinquish. 

Temps will stay in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

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VIDEO: DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY

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THIS WEEK, IT STARTS LIKE MAY, WITH A SWITCH TO MARCH

1. Today and Monday: Areas nearest to the shore will be 5-10 degrees cooler than inland sections. So far though, weekend temps have been generally warmer than anticipated on the coastal plain, with very good verification being observed inland and in the city.

2. Dry, but overcast Monday. Fog and cloud potential will increase tonight into tomorrow as the content of the moisture of the air increases.  The cool Atlantic Ocean will also aid in fog formation in the evenings for tonight and again tomorrow night for southern and eastern sections nearest to the shore.

Intellicast.com

Weather Underground: TOP : Temps for Monday. BOTTOM: Current Temps (12:00pm Sunday)

3. Tuesday: after a few scattered showers early, heavy rain develops in the afternoon and continues through the evening before ending. Overall, the heaviest rain should occur from 3pm-midnight. Windy conditions with the rain expected, with some gusts over 40mph. Rainfall amounts should easily average an inch in most places. Temps fall significantly Tuesday night and Wednesday. Potential for light snow well north and west of NYC late tuesday night into Wednesday (most likely up near Orange county). 

Intellicast

4. Much cooler Wednesday through Friday, with a breeze originating from off of the cool Atlantic (northeast winds). More rain arrives for Friday night into Saturday, as winds veer back to southerly. Easter Sunday looks dry with temps 60-65