LABOR DAY LAMENTATION

The overall pattern going into next week will remain the same as it’s been for the entire month of August; a stifling heat wave that has taken place over the mid-west will reposition itself further west.

 So while it gets muggy all weekend long into Monday around our region, no widespread heat above 90 degrees ever makes it in. In fact, NYC will only have one 90-degree day all month long. 

Intellicast

 

The combination of the humidity and the fast flowing jet stream nearby will result in showers and storms becoming increasingly widespread by Sunday and especially into Monday. 

The first sections to be under the gun will be the interior, with the coast and city getting in on the action Sunday and again Monday. Right now, the most likely time for showers and storms would be Monday for all areas. Flooding of roads is the biggest concern with any one storm acting on all of that humidity available in the atmosphere. A period of widespread heavy rainfall looks likely Monday afternoon and night with the passage of the main cold front

 

Tuesday and Wednesday are much drier, with lower humidity values.

 

This is the quietest run-up to Labor Day in the tropics in a long time; Nevertheless, the tropics are starting to get active, with a very active September likely.

VIDEO: WEEK STARTS UNSETTLED, THEN A LABOR DAY WARM-UP

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VIDEO: DISSECTING THE HEAT AND ITS RETREAT

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AFTER A GORGEOUS WEEKEND, WARMTH AND HUMIDITY BUILD ANEW NEXT WEEK...

An interesting overall weather pattern will take shape next week. A relaxation of the jet stream combined with some warmth from both Canada and the southern states will give us an increasingly warm an humid feel around here; something that's been pretty absent for a better part of three weeks.

Temps will steadily increase each day; a good shot at hitting 90 in the city exists Wednesday-Friday, especially in the urban locales.

Intellicast Temps

NOAA Dew Points for Wednesday Aug 21

Aside for a slight chance of a stray shower Monday night, rain chances will be hard to come by the next seven days. Cloud cover will be at a minimum, with the exception of Monday afternoon and night.


Most areas got between a half an inch to an inch of precip on Tuesday. Southern Jersey and north and west of town got the most (as per the norm for this summer).

TROPICS: two features to watch.

National Hurricane Center

The disturbance in the Caribbean should drift north towards the eastern Gulf Coast with heavy rains and some tropical storm conditions by late in the weekend.

Tropical Storm Erin will have a tough time maintaining herself, as she traverses the Atlantic with a lot of mid-level dry air in her way.

VIDEO: NO RAINFALL APOCALYPSE THIS WEEK

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COOL AUGUST WILL CONTINUE THIS COMING WEEK

1.  Coastal Northeast continues to miss out on the bulk of the rainfall. This past seven days was no exception. Much of the interior of New England and Mid Atlantic states received at least an inch from Wednesday through Friday, but little made it to east of Interstate 95

2. Best chance of rainfall is Tuesday, as front crosses the region in the afternoon and evening. The focus of where the heaviest rain sets up will need to be fine-tuned. Clearing late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

3. Early Fall-like air mass moves in Wednesday-Friday, with highs in the upper 70s. Temps in the 50s at night.

Intellicast

4. Pattern reconfiguration late month could spell a renewed surge of more typical-to-somewhat-above average summertime heat for this time of year. Last ten days of the month could be a pre-cursor to overall warm September on the heals of this August, which should average near to slightly below normal for the monthly mean temp.

MID AND LATE WEEK RAINFALL PROSPECTS INCREASING...

The overall pattern will promote an increasing unsettled weather picture beginning late Tuesday night. While some showers can move through Tuesday night (especially west of the Hudson River), the first shot at significant, widespread rainfall will occur by mid-to-late afternoon Wednesday, with the best chances Wednesday evening through Thursday mid-morning.

Only scattered showers will be possible for the remainder of Thursday into Friday, before a cold front pushes through with the renewed threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Most spots should pick up an inch in the bucket with ease between Wednesday and Friday, but given the rain-free "whole" that's hovering over the coastal Northeast, it's fair to be skeptical!

The weekend looks dry, with pleasant temps and lower humidity values returning yet again.

Intellicast

A cool, somewhat wet pattern will continue for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country through mid-month, with odds of 90-degree plus temps staying low through the 20th.