ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAT, THEN A LATE JULY RETREAT

A very complicated forecast setup this week ended in disaster, as rain did in fact plague much of Friday across the tri state area.

Conditions will improve though, leaving the majority of the weekend dry for most spots. A risk of a stray heavy shower will exist tomorrow, then attention will turn to increasing heat for much of next week.

Intellicast's temps put forth in no uncertain terms that, if right, it's the hottest stretch of weather we've had thus far.  Aiding us somewhat will be the appearance of some afternoon cumulus clouds, in combination with the "mixing out" of the higher humidity values; this should occur during the peak of the heating each day, and thus, keep the dangerous "heat index" values at bay. 

Storm chances will be low next week overall, especially for NYC and the coast. However, by Thursday, the overall pattern will allow higher chances for afternoon storms. This will continue into Friday as well.

Lurking on the horizon for the last week ten days of July is a renewed shot of cool air building in Northwest Canada.

The odds are high that once again, the heat of the summer of 2013 is transient.  Some long range experts feel that the cooler pattern overall will follow from 7/20 to perhaps through the first ten days of August.

More Later.

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DECREASING HEAT, BUT INCREASING STORM THREATS THIS WEEK

1. Repetitive pattern which has dominated the summer thus far will settle in again, making it easy to see temps lowering for high temps, but just as hard to pinpoint rain chances this week.  Buckling of the jet stream is once again responsible.

WPC: Jet stream through Monday

2. PRECIP: Most days are fair game for an afternoon thunderstorm for north and west of NYC. City and points east have their best chances Monday, Wednesday, Thursday night/Friday.  Heavier, more widespread rainfall looks like it would happen for a good part of Friday, as front stalls in our vicinity.  Saturday, the chances for rain diminish except for in the late afternoon; Sunday's the better bet, with even less chance for afternoon storms. 

3. TEMPS:  Cooling off each day, with bust potential for Friday if steady, widespread rains do develop. Windiest day will be Wednesday. 

WPC: Highs for Friday and Saturday:

Intellicast Temps

4. Tropics will turn active, with the Southeast US at risk for at least heavy rains late week in to next week.

Accuweather

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AS WE HEAD FOR THE FOURTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL WANE

1. NYC and Long Island were in a virtual rain-free hole this week, while areas to the north and south received at least an inch of precip in the last seven days. Thus, the overall forecasts proved to be unreliable for the metro area this week.

Intellicast precip amounts for the week

2. Persistance will pay off in terms of planning Monday and Tuesday; showers and storms will be relegated to areas north and west of nyc each day, with NYC/Long Island largely missing out

3. Change in the overall pattern will reduce rain chances even further from Wednesday through the weekend, as a more stable air mass takes hold. Fewer triggers in the atmosphere to ignite daily storms.  Highs will climb slowly each day, with typical nighttime lows in the 60s and 70s.

Intellicast

4. NYC will fall just shy of all-time June record rainfall.

Accuweather

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INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND

The first "official" heat wave of the season for the city is underway, but it'll break by Thursday as cloud cover increases.

Intellicast.com

Through Wednesday, the majority of thunderstorms during the day will be confined to the northern and western suburbs of NYC. However,  a very atypical weather pattern will evolve by late week, setting the stage for a daily barrage of heavy rains, thunderstorms and very muggy temps to linger across the entire region. An uptick in activity will start Thursday, but should really get going by Friday through Monday.

 The evolution of this wet pattern will most likely take several days to clear the east coast, making the threat of flooding almost certain for the usually vulnerable rivers and streams around the region.

Accuweather.com

The bottled up nature of the pattern-- akin to a wintertime "blocking" pattern, will mean that the front will move painfully slow, which will exacerbate the flood risk for the unfortunate areas that receive the most rains.

The maps from NOAA for Thursday, Saturday and Sunday illustrate the problem nicely, as the meandering front only crawls eastward....

Sunday could be a real problem for a widespread flood threat, as the front makes its closest approach.

The 7-day totals forecasted from now through Monday night from NOAA show an average of 2 inches in the red shading:

However, with the very rich availability of moisture in the atmosphere, the potential is there for some places to see much higher totals, particularly if a certain location gets hit multiple times in one day.


So to sum up:

• heavy rain/thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity from Thursday onward across the entire region.
• the weather will be most prone to flare-ups of heavy showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours --- similar to a Florida-type weather pattern. It will not rain the entire period
• Closest approach of frontal system will happen Sunday into Monday, which should give us the best opportunity for widespread heavy rainfall as opposed to scattered showers and storms. 

Another update will be needed by Wednesday