WARMER AIR ON THE MENU THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK

1. storm this past week under-performed precip-wise, but lashed the coast with high waves and strong winds. Overview was best north and west of town where the most snow fell (Thursday night, with virtually none Wednesday night).

2. Mild temps take over, with Saturday/Sunday blanketed by bright blue skies. Temps near 50 for the first time in weeks. 30s to near 40 at night.

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3. Monday turns cloudy, but it's even milder than Sunday, with temps surging in to the mid/upper 50s. Showers arrive at night Monday night into Tuesday morning, before clearing takes hold Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

4. Long range guidance indicates a period of cold weather arriving around the 17th. Chance for another coastal storm during this time frame, as the overall pattern is once again conducive for a time.

STORM UPDATE: WHAT TO WATCH FOR THROUGH FRIDAY

The overview from the past two days is basically on track. The snow amounts look good from yesterday, with the best chance of over six inches of snow for the eastern tip of Long Island and eastern Connecticut. However, keep in mind that the accumulation will take place after dark tonight and through the overnight hours.  If the precip changes over to snow sooner in your location, the chances for seeing higher snowfall totals are much greater.

The guidance is really picking up on the idea of the second shot of snowfall tomorrow night into very early Friday morning; so, the odds are looking good that after a lull tomorrow afternoon, a period of steady snow should develop tomorrow night, with the potential of 1-3 more inches on top of whatever you receive tonight into tomorrow!

There is the possibility of travel delays Thursday morning. Winds will remain fairly high through Friday, as the storm is slow to exit the region.

The weekend looks dry, with temps in the 40s.

FORECAST DE JOUR...

this is absurd for this late in the game to have this much disagreement. See the video for the explanation for all of the weather madness on the eve of what should be a fascinating storm the next few days.

VIDEO: STORM UPDATE

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

MAJOR COASTAL STORM WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY 

The models, which have had an awful time with the northward extend of this storm are now coming into better agreement. The trend over the past 24-36 hours is decidedly in favor of a further northward moving storm, putting the Tri-State area directly in the crosshairs of the storm on Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.

Rain will change to a heavy wet snowfall for the entire area, with intense snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The precipitation will change back to light rain in the afternoon on Thursday before tapering off at night thursday night. However, as the intense low pressure sits and spins over the North Atlantic on Friday, an additional round of snowfall -- probably light -- will be possible during the day.

Very windy conditions are likely for Wednesday evening; in fact, winds will only slowly subside on Thursday and Friday, as the pattern remains bottled up. At their peak, wind speeds could surpass 50mph Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The prolong beating on our coastline cannot be overlooked; the coastal flood and beach erosion from the storm will only slowly abate. One positive note is that astronomical tides are not at their highest possible levels.

Accu-weather

Another update late tonight or tomorrow...

MID WEEK STORM RUNDOWN...

The blocking pattern we’re in now is usually a pre-cursor to a major, slow-moving storm along the eastern seaboard.  It should be no surprise to those who read here as to why this could happen; but now the possibility is growing even larger as model guidance is starting to converge on the general theme of the intense storm, with the details of the actual track still to be worked out in full.

TIMEFRAME: Wednesday through a large portion of Thursday

 

STORM SCENARIOS:

 

In terms of precipitation, prospects for an all-snow event for NYC and the coast are low, but even residents there could still end up with a heavy accumulation at the end of the storm, with at least half of the event being rain. Inland areas stand to get the most snowfall, with the highest (right now) potential for a disruptive snowstorm south and west of Interstate 95.

 

for the coast,  the unfortunate scenario of a siege on the very fragile coastal sections of New Jersey and New York is a very real possibility (even with a more off-shore track), as the painfully slow-moving storm would pile water into our shorelines for 1-2 days! The saving grace is that the astronomical tide cycle is low, which will mitigate (somewhat) the affects of coastal flooding and beach erosion.

 

More later.

COOL AND UNSETTLED TO OPEN MARCH

The shot at an early spring is on hold for now as a deep pool of cool air will be anchored over the eastern two thirds of the US for the foreseeable future.

 Along with variable cloud cover and brisk, the weather will have a tendency to be showery during the day, with isolated pockets here and there (Saturday, Monday and Tuesday look driest). Few if any showers will be around at night, with no "trigger" available due the loss of the daytime warming aloft.

Intellicast

Intellicast

The "blocking" pattern we're in now often leads to the development of major late winter/early spring storms, particularly along the eastern seaboard. Our next real shot at anything significant could come between Tuesday and Wednesday.

Overall, after Wednesday of this week, no widespread, organized precipitation is in the offing.

In a nutshell: Truly Irish weather to open up March.

Perfect timing...

Accuweather