THIS WINTER:
If the consensus holds for a snowier-than-normal winter,
it would be the 6th winter out of the last 7 with above normal snowfall...and that has not happened since the 1880s.
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| Accuweather.com |
This year,
many of the same factors that contributed to our snowy pattern last year are yet again
in place. A
border-line El Niño, a favorable overall water temperature profile in the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans and
above normal October snow cover in Eurasia should sew the seeds for another cold, snowy winter, with amounts compared to seasonal averages
well-above normal area-wide, particularly towards the coast.
One would think (and some would hope) that the odds of beating last year's robust snowfall totals would be low.
But the last time NYC saw back-to-back 50 plus inch seasonal snowfalls was not long ago -- 2009-10 and 2010-11. Indeed, with few exceptions, the late 1990s through 2013 will -- by far and away -- be remembered for being one of the snowiest periods of weather around these parts since the 1940s!
NY NJ PA Winter Forecast
Weatherbell Winter Forecast
NOAA Winter Forecast
Weather Channel/WSI Winter Outlook
Accuweather Winter Outlook
WINTER 2013-2014:
Last winter saw heavy snows blanket the area in January and February. NYC recorded 57.3 inches for the season, with many locales totaling similar results.
Things got started on December 14-15, when our first coastal storm brought
half snow/half rain to the coast, while dumping heavy snow inland.
The first snowstorm with little to no rain occurred shortly after the New Year, with
blizzard conditions, 8-12" of new snow, and bone-numbing cold which followed directly in behind the storm.
A second
potent winter storm came around Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with similar accumulations, but less wind. February had a close call early on, but then another winter storm came calling February 13-14, with a blinding snowfall that snarled the morning rush. In the evening, snow changed to a
drenching rain for the coast, while areas to our north remained with frozen precip.
Toward the end, the interesting part of winter was what DIDN'T happen; three storms missed the area to the south in the month of March, sparing the area the chance of smashing all-time seasonal snowfall records.
Bottom Line: In the very long term, subtle, but cyclical shifts in the overall hemispheric and water temperature pattern over the next several years may well yet spell the decline of prolific snowy seasons like we've had. However, in the short run, while maybe not as cold as last year, we should expect to see a season which once again will be capable of producing very disruptive wintry events similar to those we've grown accustomed to, and this is in line with the historical trends of the last 15-20 years.
