THURSDAY'S COASTAL STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE REGION

A major change in the forecasts this week will revolve around a developing coastal storm, which will track along the Atlantic seaboard for late week. For the past day or so, models have been nudging the storm's rains into our area more and more. The forecast has become markedly pessimistic for late Wednesday night into early Friday, where 1-2 inches of rain will fall, particularly for NYC and points south and east. Brisk easterly winds will gust to around 30mph at the coast for Thursday and Thursday night.

On Wednesday, clouds will lower and thicken during the day. Winds will start to increase somewhat out ahead of the approaching low during the evening and remain gusty through Thursday night. Rain will first advance into the southern portions of the area late at night Wednesday night into early Thursday and continue to spread inland during the day Thursday.

Accuweather.com

As we clear out early Friday, the stage will be set for significant warmth to take hold this weekend, with dry conditions until at least Monday night into Tuesday.  Highs this weekend will be normal for mid-to-late August levels.

Intellicast.com

Accuweather.com

VIDEO: SUNDAY SHOWERS, THEN A TRANQUIL TRANSITION TO FALL

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BENIGN WEATHER AS WE HEAD FOR THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL

Fall Begins September 22nd at 10:29pm In NYC

1. Tuesday: Light rain moves in very early in the morning, and continues off and on through mid morning/early afternoon before quitting. Skies will clear by late in the day.

2. Chilly nights Wednesday night and again Thursday as a light northerly wind flow takes over. Lows will be in the lower 50s in NYC, with upper 40s in the outlying areas.

intellicast.com

3. Rough surf will develop by mid-week as distant Hurricane Edouard makes its closest approach.

4. A bit more cloud cover Saturday, but conditions remain dry Wednesday through Sunday. Warmest day is Sunday ahead of our next frontal passage.  Monday, we'll see showers move through during the day, with temps returning to normal levels by next Tuesday (the first full day of fall).

WEEKEND WILL START MURKY WITH A FRESH FINISH...

Clouds during the first part of Thursday kept a lid on any thunderstorms from forming.  This was a forecast error.

After temps climbed into the 80s today, a fresh, fall-like air mass will settle in over the region, with two shots at rainfall through Thursday.

Accuweather.com

For star-gazing purposes on Friday night, clouds should once again take hold of the area late at night.  A period of moderate rain should develop for Saturday afternoon into the first part of Saturday night before ending. Rainfall in any one location should be about 4-6 hours in duration before it tapers off.

Intellicast.com

For Tuesday, showers should spread in early in the morning and continue off and on through much of the day before ending at night.

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...

1. A good start on Monday, but then the sun gets filtered by cloud cover towards late day. A somewhat brisk easterly flow sets up Monday and Tuesday from off of the cool Atlantic Ocean, which will aid in the development of low clouds and drizzle Monday night.  Persistent easterly winds combined with the high tides will act in concert to produce minor coastal flooding early this week.

2. Clouds and breezy conditions will prevail Tuesday into Tuesday night as a weak coastal storm tries to advance in from the south. Stubborn high pressure anchored over New England will keep the low at bay, so only expect very light rain for Tuesday, with areas nearest to the coast getting up to about a quarter of an inch of rain before we dry out Wednesday.

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WPC 5-day precip totals

3. By Thursday (our warmest day of the week), a strong cold front crosses the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms a good bet in the afternoon. Turning much cooler for the weekend, as a fresh Autumnal air mass settles in.

Intellicast.com

VIDEO: SATURDAY STORMS, THEN SEPTEMBER AIR ROLLS IN

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LATE SUMMER TEMP SURGE BEGINS WITH STORMS....

Overall,  the next 72 hours will feature very warm temps for this time of year, with uncomfortable humidity values.

NYC dew point history from 4pm 8/28 to 8am 8/31. 

The very high humidity values combined with small disturbances rolling through our region will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Any shower or storm that does move over the region will produce very heavy rain. By late afternoon, storms should be ongoing north and west of NYC, then they will spread south and east through the remainder of the evening and overnight before ending late tonight.

For tomorrow, more showers and thunderstorms will develop for the afternoon and evening, but they will be a little less widespread than today's storms.

Accuweather.com

Afternoon and evening storms will try to develop once again for Tuesday, but then the winds turn more northerly on Wednesday, which will lower the humidity values and our rain chances through at least Saturday morning.

Intellicast.com

Weatherspark.com. Average September highs and lows for select dates in NYC