Sunday, July 20, 2014
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
A RESPITE FROM DRENCHING STORMS
1. Showers and t'storms will still be possible for NYC and points west for Wednesday into early Wednesday afternoon (until around 1-2pm) before clearing starts. Further east, showers will be possible into the early evening.
2. Thursday/Friday are dry. Temps will be a few degrees below normal levels. Pleasant conditions this time frame. The recent cold spell over the mid-west and plains states never gets close enough to give us exceptionally below normal temps.
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| Intellicast Cloud Cover |
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| Intellicast Temps |
3. Saturday through Monday: Weak frontal zone sits nearby. Threat of very light showers will exist for most areas, but no organized, widespread rainfall is expected over the weekend (much of the time, it'll be dry). Turning more humid after Friday, with a general increase in clouds. Warm, humid pattern may be more conducive to scattered afternoon storms by Monday and Tuesday, but nothing widespread like this week is in the offing at this point.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Sunday, July 6, 2014
A WARM WEEK OVERALL
1. July 4th rainfall lasted on average 3 to 5 hours longer than originally forecasted by most sources, including here .
2. Quiet overall, but scattered afternoon storms start building in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Bigger story will be the hot, humid weather, with Tuesday being the warmest day of the week. Uncomfortable sleeping weather for Monday night, Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
3. Wednesday night/Thursday sees the best shot area-wide at showers and storms. Temps return to normal Thursday through the weekend, with lower humidity values. A leftover shower can happen Thursday, but it'll be mostly dry and cooler by then. By Sunday, the forecast becomes tricky; another system could approach with a few showers and storms in the afternoon. A wetter week is in store for next week based on some of the long range guidance.
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| 7/4/14 AHPS Precip analysis: NOAA |
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| Hurricane Arthur: Position at 1pm: 7/4/14 |
2. Quiet overall, but scattered afternoon storms start building in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Bigger story will be the hot, humid weather, with Tuesday being the warmest day of the week. Uncomfortable sleeping weather for Monday night, Tuesday night and Wednesday night.
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| Intellicast.com |
3. Wednesday night/Thursday sees the best shot area-wide at showers and storms. Temps return to normal Thursday through the weekend, with lower humidity values. A leftover shower can happen Thursday, but it'll be mostly dry and cooler by then. By Sunday, the forecast becomes tricky; another system could approach with a few showers and storms in the afternoon. A wetter week is in store for next week based on some of the long range guidance.
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| NOAA: Climate Predictions Center |
Wednesday, July 2, 2014
Monday, June 30, 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER LATE WEEK, BUT DRYING OUT ON THE FOURTH
1. Previous post details the summer thus far and what it may mean the rest of the way.
2. Warm and increasingly humid as advertised for mid week (Wednesday and Thursday). Muggy conditions develop with moist, southerly flow. Readings may hit 90 or better Wednesday, with an outside shot of it again on Thursday (more clouds Thursday).
3. Scattered to isolated storms NYC east Wednesday, but more widespread activity for north and west of RT 287 for the afternoon and evening. Main threat is flash flooding.
4. Thursday: Complex interaction between slow front and developing tropical cyclone should deliver the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms at any point during the day and through the night. Exact area where the heaviest rain will be is unknown, but places along the coast stand the best chance.
5. Rain chances diminish Friday, but rough surf will persist, as the offshore cyclone makes its closest approach. A nice weekend is in store with pleasant temps. Some humidity will build back in by late this weekend as the winds once again veer to a southerly direction.
2. Warm and increasingly humid as advertised for mid week (Wednesday and Thursday). Muggy conditions develop with moist, southerly flow. Readings may hit 90 or better Wednesday, with an outside shot of it again on Thursday (more clouds Thursday).
3. Scattered to isolated storms NYC east Wednesday, but more widespread activity for north and west of RT 287 for the afternoon and evening. Main threat is flash flooding.
4. Thursday: Complex interaction between slow front and developing tropical cyclone should deliver the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms at any point during the day and through the night. Exact area where the heaviest rain will be is unknown, but places along the coast stand the best chance.
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| Intellicast.com |
5. Rain chances diminish Friday, but rough surf will persist, as the offshore cyclone makes its closest approach. A nice weekend is in store with pleasant temps. Some humidity will build back in by late this weekend as the winds once again veer to a southerly direction.
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| Not an official forecast |
Friday, June 27, 2014
FORECASTING FOLLIES FOR THE FOURTH
A stretch of delightful weather will prevail through much of next week, with little rainfall through Friday. However, humidity values will creep up by Monday and stay rather high through most of the week before returning to below normal levels by late Thursday.
The possibility of a front sitting over us with scattered showers and storms has to be watched for Wednesday through Thursday, but the recent pattern has been progressive, sending fronts quickly to our south, enough to not allow for much in the way of rainfall since early June.
The prospects for major heat holding on for longer than a day or two continues to elude us thus far. In a month that normally averages four days of 90-degrees plus, Central Park only got as hot as 89 degrees, and the likelihood is slim that the observation site will hit it at all by the time we reach midnight on Tuesday.
Of the 16 years at NYC that have not hit 90 degrees in June since 1869, near-to-below normal temps remained in tact for the remainder of meteorological summer; moreover, out of those 16 summers, only 1911 and 1917 saw Central Park hit 100 degrees, but it only happened once in each season respectively.
The combination of a lot of rain over the northern plains and Mid-West as well as saturated grounds in those regions, is leading to a buffer against deep-rooted source regions for heat to build and hold.
In short, the idea from back on Sunday of consistently warm to hot temps taking hold to open July is defunct.
After a warm, humid period from Monday through Wednesday, near-to-below normal temps will once again take hold as we head towards Independence Day!
The possibility of a front sitting over us with scattered showers and storms has to be watched for Wednesday through Thursday, but the recent pattern has been progressive, sending fronts quickly to our south, enough to not allow for much in the way of rainfall since early June.
The prospects for major heat holding on for longer than a day or two continues to elude us thus far. In a month that normally averages four days of 90-degrees plus, Central Park only got as hot as 89 degrees, and the likelihood is slim that the observation site will hit it at all by the time we reach midnight on Tuesday.
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| Intellicast.com |
Of the 16 years at NYC that have not hit 90 degrees in June since 1869, near-to-below normal temps remained in tact for the remainder of meteorological summer; moreover, out of those 16 summers, only 1911 and 1917 saw Central Park hit 100 degrees, but it only happened once in each season respectively.
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| Weatherbell.com |
The combination of a lot of rain over the northern plains and Mid-West as well as saturated grounds in those regions, is leading to a buffer against deep-rooted source regions for heat to build and hold.
In short, the idea from back on Sunday of consistently warm to hot temps taking hold to open July is defunct.
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| Left: NOAA temp probability for 7/1-7/7...Issued 6/22/14 Right: NOAA temp probability for 7/3-7/7...Issued 6/27/14 |
After a warm, humid period from Monday through Wednesday, near-to-below normal temps will once again take hold as we head towards Independence Day!
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