FORECASTING FOLLIES FOR THE FOURTH

A stretch of delightful weather will prevail through much of next week, with little rainfall through Friday.  However, humidity values will creep up by Monday and stay rather high through most of the week before returning to below normal levels by late Thursday.

The possibility of a front sitting over us with scattered showers and storms has to be watched for Wednesday through Thursday, but the recent pattern has been progressive, sending fronts quickly to our south, enough to not allow for much in the way of rainfall since early June.

The prospects for major heat holding on for longer than a day or two continues to elude us thus far.  In a month that normally averages four days of 90-degrees plus, Central Park only got as hot as 89 degrees, and the likelihood is slim that the observation site will hit it at all by the time we reach midnight on Tuesday.

Intellicast.com

Of the 16 years at NYC that have not hit 90 degrees in June since 1869,  near-to-below normal temps remained in tact for the remainder of meteorological summer; moreover, out of those 16 summers, only 1911 and 1917 saw Central Park hit 100 degrees, but it only happened once in each season respectively.

Weatherbell.com

The combination of a lot of rain over the northern plains and Mid-West as well as saturated grounds in those regions, is leading to a buffer against deep-rooted source regions for heat to build and hold.

In short,  the idea from back on Sunday of consistently warm to hot temps taking hold to open July is defunct.

Left: NOAA temp probability for 7/1-7/7...Issued 6/22/14
Right: NOAA temp probability for 7/3-7/7...Issued 6/27/14

After a warm, humid period from Monday through Wednesday, near-to-below normal temps will once again take hold as we head towards Independence Day!

VIDEO: WET WEDNESDAY, THEN CLEARING

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SUMMER MAKES A SPECTACULAR ENTRANCE

Summer Solstice will be at 6:51am EDT Saturday

After our bout with showers today (unexpected), conditions will dry out through at least next Tuesday. The front which has bypassed the region has swept away a hot, but dry air mass. In its wake, a cool, Canadian air mass will take shape, leading to nothing short of ideal summer-like warmth through early next week.

Intellicast.com

By Tuesday, another front will approach the region. However, the chances for rain will only slowly increase through the mid-week period; much, if not all of Tuesday should be dry, but clouds will begin to advance in during the afternoon and evening. Expect rain chances in the form of showers and thunderstorms to increase markedly on Wednesday into early Thursday before we clear out once more.

VIDEO: A LOOK AT THE REST OF THE WEEK

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HEAT AND STORMS THIS WEEK

1. Temp Rundown: Warmest weather of the late spring season on tap this week. Apex of heat will be Tuesday/Wednesday, with the best shot at seeing 90-degree plus readings on Wednesday in the warmest urban locales (Newark, NYC). Further South near Trenton and Philadelphia and points south, they could hit 90 degrees twice in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe.

NOAA: Highs Wednesday

2. Rain: Rain chances will begin Monday night, as a weakening area of showers and thunderstorms approaches and moves through at night. On Tuesday night, another shot at storms comes calling, with best chances north and west of NYC. Wednesday afternoon, we may have enough ingredients for a line of pretty potent storms, as a cold front works through for the late week period and knocks our temps down to normal.

Intellicast

3. Late Week/Weekend: Thursday looks like storm chances start to decrease again. The main threat area would be north and west of the NYC metro. Even less chances for storms for Friday. However, with this week's frontal boundary still around, its ultimate placement will determine how dry the weekend will be.

VIDEO: LATE WEEK RAIN, THEN A SUMMERY STRETCH OF WARMTH

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A HUMID, UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD, WITH A DRY WEEKEND TO FOLLOW

1. Difficult forecast this period as waves of low pressure will trigger scattered showers and some thunderstorms at times this week. Continued heavy rains over the southern plains states will inhibit the development of oppressive summer heat from making it in here through at least mid month.

NOAA 5-day precip totals through 7am Saturday

2. MONDAY: Mainly cloudy, with showers in the morning. There will be a break, but more showers are possible late in the day throughout the night Monday night.

Accuweather.com

3. TUESDAY: More of the same, but the best chances for showers will be away from the coast. The likelihood of precip starts to drop off for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday is the best bet for a dry day during the week.

Accuweather.com

4. Increase in showers and thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon through Friday. Models are in good agreement that the weekend is dry after the cold front passes on Friday.

Intellicast.com

5. Hurricane Season should be a quiet one overall for a second straight year.