NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT, A WINTER STORM IS IN PROGRESS!

The storm talked about since last Tuesday on this blog has come with an unexpected wintry fury (or flurry if you like). The storm's eastward track has allowed colder and colder air on its western and northern flank to filter down and produce mostly snow across the NYC metro area and points east and north. The weather service issued a winter weather advisory for the five boroughs around 1pm, and the snow has gotten heavier since that time. Temps continue to fall at this hour, with Central Park reporting 32 degrees at 4pm, with heavy snow!!

The radar shows the axis of heaviest snows over NYC/Nassau/Southern CT.

Expect the snow to continue through at least midnight, with additional light accumulations possible after midnight.  Many areas will be able to report a lot of 2, 3 and 4 inch amounts!

ACCUWEATHER SNOW MAP

it is not out of the question that some places can see around 6" of snow before all is said and done late tonight.

Clearly, the overview here was grossly underdone on the prospect of snow in the coastal tri state area.

another overview coming tomorrow. Things are about to settle down as advertised.

MID WEEK NOR'EASTER; SAD, BUT TRUE

TIMING: NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

SUMMARY OF FORECAST PERIOD: A low pressure system will develop in the gulf states and reach our area wednesday. the storm will intensify into a rather powerful coastal storm wednesday afternoon.

The worst of the weather will last a good 10-12 hours in any one location from wednesday afternoon through thursday morning. The mid week storm will not be as strong as the ferocious storm of last week, but it will have the power to threaten some power problems as well as delay the overall clean-up efforts. Additionally, the threat of coastal flooding will recommence on the very vulnerable eastern New Jersey coastline.

Expect windy conditions to linger into a good part of Thursday before slackening.

After the next storm, the pattern relaxes, the temps warm up and overall, we will get a prolonged respite from any coastal storms through much of the week of 11/12.

Until then, hold tight.


regular overview should be out for thursday.

PRELIMINARY THREAT MAP FOR WEDNESDAY NOR'EASTER

SOURCES:
ACCUWEATHER
NOAA
WEATHERBELL

STORM AROUND ELECTION DAY...AND OTHER FORECAST ISSUES

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

The last overview is basically on track.

First, the weekend is looking quite chilly, with readings near 50 both Saturday into Sunday. The winds will be breezy on Saturday, making it feel like it's in the lower 40s or lower during the day.

INTELLICAST WINDS

ACCUWEATHER SLIDE:

Second, the storm for early next week is looking more and more like it's a Tuesday/Wednesday problem. A cold, very chilly storm is in the offing if it tracks near us; based on the latest data, the prospects are increasing. 

As noted before, it will not be anywhere near the historic storm we just experienced; rather, it'll be more of a typical, fall nor'easter. The likely affects are going to be a cold,  very chilly rainfall, with perhaps some inland wintry precipitation. Snow may be seen in the air (mixed with primarily rain) in NYC on Wednesday.

The actual weather on Election Day is not likely to affect voter turnout.


more later

WEATHER-WISE AND OTHERWISE, SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK

1. Remnants of the storm will cause the risk of a shower Wednesday through Friday. Unstable air mass left in its wake. Highs in the 50s. Lows in the 40s at night.

2. Saturday and Sunday are breezy, but clouds finally get scoured out. Highs are cooler with wind. Saturday's highs could be stuck in the 40s, with freezing temps possible north and west of NYC.

Intellicast Temps:

3. Another possible coastal storm Monday/Tuesday. Potential is far, far less with this storm as few will rival what we just witnessed with deadly merging of Sandy with another storm; nature of storm if it developed would be a typical fall storm, with rain and winds. Will need updating later on.

WEATHER CHANNEL POWER OUTAGE PROBABILITY MAP

NWS NOAA SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE ON IMPENDING STORM