MODELS "ADJUSTING" TO THE REALITY OF THE MAJOR WARM SPELL...

Off the NAM model for this coming Tuesday the 13th:

The red areas are over NYC and much of New Jersey are mid 70s. But look at the disparity as you go eastbound into the coastal plain of Long Island and CT. Temps there drop off somewhat into the 60s, but still it's well above normal level temps, and it's only the beginning...

In an earlier post, our point and click example from Intellicast had highs near 70 for NYC for Tuesday, but in light of the latest data, it looks like they've adjusted upwards!!

Tuesday now shows 73! The warmest reporting stations such as Newark and La Guarida could easily surpass the mid 70s for high temps Tuesday at this rate.

For the weekend, even though temps "come down" to low to mid 60s, the rebound starts Sunday, and we're off to the races yet again.

We'll cover precip chances for this week and update later to see if forecasts for a mostly dry week are holding true.

80s IN MARCH? YES. 90S IN MARCH? NO (NOT YET)

The guys at Americawx are doing some great compiling of stats on 80-degree days in NYC in March, as well as the earliest 90-degree days on record in Central Park

Go to the last page (right now it's page 3 as of this writing) and check them out.

HISTORIC MARCH BLOWTORCH ABOUT TO BEGIN IN ERNEST...

for the next 10-15 days, the amount of consistent warmth the models are showing (and have continued to show) for much of the nation is astounding. The fact that we've hit 70 degrees once already and in light of the upcoming pattern that's being depicted, it's a good bet that NYC and points westward stand a chance to hit the 70-degree plateau two or three more times before the month draws to a close:

FROM ACCUWEATHER.COM

Taken this afternoon's GFS model verbatim, this graphic will easily hold true for the week of the 18th, as the warm air looks to get locked into the eastern two thirds of the nation in a big way.

The first shot of 70 degrees is for Tuesday, but we'll make a run in some locations on Monday, with highs climbing into the 60s.

After today's brief chill, it's basically time to start thinking about piling the winter jackets into the closet until further notice.

The warmth continues to rout any fleeting chill, and it will continue to surpass historic records as it did this past winter...

A LOOK AT THE INTELLICAST TEMP CHART AND TRENDS

Here's today's intellicast temps for the next seven days, starting from today. It looks like the temp forecasts for next Thursday have come up a few degrees, but they remain steady for the 17th, showing lower 60s (still well above normal). Taken verbatim, the heart of the warmth next week looks to be solidly in the mid to late week period, with some leveling off

Here's the slide i drew from yesterday with the help of Intellicast.com

It will be fun to keep watching to see how high the temps can remain into next weekend using this graph!

"Spring Ahead" tomorrow. 

Weather Overview-Video Edition 3/8/12.

UPCOMING PERIOD LOOKS LIKE SPECTACULAR WARMTH FOR MARCH

The month of March is off to a flying start. After today's readings surpassed 70 degrees from NYC west, a cool down is in store, albeit brief, for the first half of the weekend. However, much like the "cold" we've seen this winter season, the chill will be quickly scoured out and warm air will advance right back in. 

Aside from the rainfall tonight, not much precip is in the offing. Any system that tries to move in will be quickly pushed out, and no storms from the gulf states are poised to move up the coastal plain in the foreseeable future. 

There's a good possibility that the highs for next weekend may be on the low side, as models try to factor in too much what the normal temp "should" be. But the weather is showing us so far this year that, until further notice, warm will rule the roost in the lower-48 states. 

Weather Overview: Video Edition 3/8/12

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCIUvK8lFkQ